12 Nov Global Peanuts Report
Pangea Brokers updated Global Peanuts Report
As it´s an extremely quiet on all fronts and origins, we are happy to share with you the updated global market information for Peanuts.
The most outstanding points for each origin are the following:
The USDA just came out with the production estimate for the 2018 crop calling for a crop of 2’735’625 fst. The carryover for next year doesn’t look as insurmountable as the past one, but it´s estimated that it will be 1.05 to 1 million
New crop plantings are well underway in Argentina with good moisture although lower temperatures. Provided weather continues to be good, plantings should be done within a couple of weeks.
The Camara came out with their new planting estimate for the new crop calling for 355’000 has to be planted, representing a decrease of 16.08%. Some believe the reduction will be closer to 20%.
Regardless what the reduction is, what matters is the yield. Good yields would produce more than sufficient supplies for the market.
It is key for Argentina to plant their crop on time to avoid cold and rainy weather at time of harvesting.
New crop plantings are well under way and progressing faster than last season. Plantings should be over within a couple of weeks.
Expectations are still for an increase of 5 to 10%.
Overall quality and production of 2018 crop proved to be slightly better than expected, although planted area is smaller than previous crop. Unfortunately nobody can figure out accurately production and planted area, all are based on estimation.
Chinese peanut market opened at a relatively low level due to weak demands lasted from end of last crop, the big carryover of crushing plants also keeps price on low side besides a satisfying production-though quality wise, peanuts from some areas are not below expectations.
The crop survey team estimated Gujarat Groundnut crop at 15.95 lakh tons vs 31.45 lakh tons last year. All India Groundnut Kharif crop estimated at 37.35 lakh tons vs last year 52.75 lakh tons. Crop is down mainly due to reduction in rainfall in Saurashtra.
Talking to several supplier, it is still not clear what the actual decrease in production is. Some believe to be only 20%. Regardless is it quite a big drop.
Despite that reduction in production, prices from India have hardly moved up any. There is somewhat a bullish undertone but unless the demand shows up, there is no reason for prices to move up.